Each year our team’s economic reports help provide our clients with direction. Confidence or concern. Smooth sailing or rougher waters.
At mid cycle, the story this year is more nuanced. Yet signal-to-noise metrics provide opportunities for building product brands.
The first half of 2026 has delivered mixed signals across spending, new construction, remodeling and audience confidence. Mortgage rates continue to shape behavior. And home prices are stabilizing in several markets.
Demand continues. Not everywhere, or evenly. And not in the form we grew accustomed to during the last cycle.
For building product brands, that may be the most important signal of all.
The Market Is Recalibrating
It would be over simplified to view the current news and geopolitical events as a lens for hesitation. Housing turnover remains challenged with affordability. Builders are leveraging incentives to motivate demand. And the market remains extremely local – with some regions resilient – while others are softer.
This is not a set-it-and-forget-it environment. The market will not be rewarding everyone simply for showing up.
When growth becomes more selective – the winners tend to be the brands that understand where demand is shifting – and why.
Right now, the market is telling us about several opertunities at once. Buyers are more selective. Pros continue to gain importance. Repair and remodel jobsites remain durable lanes.
Digital tools are becoming a bigger part of how building product brands are researched, specified, ordered and supported. And homeowners – who are living-in-place with legacy mortgages – are investing in their homes.
That is not a stalled market. It has shifted.
Pro Demand Remains a Bright Spot
The Home Depot and Lowe’s are continuing to offer useful signals for our channel. Both are navigating a softer DIY environment. And each is leaning further into the Pro customer.
For good reason.
When homeowners are not financially motivated to move, they tend to improve where they live. That supports larger renovation projects – along with the maintenance, repair and replacement work – that keeps professional contractors busy. The Home Depot’s continued investment in SRS Distribution and GMS reinforces the point. These are not simply acquisitions meant to contribute to revenue. They represent a deliberate move toward the professional channel – specialty distribution and project-driven demand – while industry analysts increasingly view that mix as parallel opportunities to the new-construction cycle.
That matters, because Pro demand behaves differently than retail impulse… tied to schedules, crews, availability, delivery and support.
It depends on confidence – that the brand will be there – when the jobsite is ready.
For manufacturers… the reminder is simple. The Pro does not need more noise. Rather, they need distribution that removes friction. Products that are easier to understand, source, install and support.
Backed by brand promises the contractor can trust.
The Stay-Put Homeowner Is Still Spending
The housing market is poised with familiar opportunity. Many homeowners are locked into lower mortgage rates, reluctant to sell. And some buyers are waiting for affordability to improve. Inventory is uneven – while the gap between what buyers want and what they claim they can afford – continues to shape the market.
In many cases, that homeowner becomes a remodeling customer. Who may be upgrading the kitchen, improving the bath, replacing the roof or adding outdoor living.
Hiring a professional for a project that adds equity to the property.
This is where building product brands can pay close attention to help the current home perform better.
Products and programs tied to durability, comfort, energy efficiency, water management, healthier interiors and lower-maintenance performance will continue to be highly relevant.
Confidence, longevity, protection, comfort and return on investment are the promises that will resonate in this environment.
Affordability Is Still the Gatekeeper
Mortgage rates have eased from year-ago levels. Income growth has moved some households closer to qualifying. And the math has improved enough to bring certain buyers back into consideration. In fact, The National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index climbed to 110.6 in April… up from 101.4 a year earlier.
Yet, as we have witnessed in recent weeks, even a modest move in rates can push buyers back to the sidelines.
Prepare for audiences seeking ways to make the numbers work. That means products that reduce installation time – simplifying labor and improving jobsite coordination – while delivering performance without adding complexity. The brands that help the channel do more with less will continue to celebrate those meaningful stories to document.
Housing Is Becoming More Local
The Midwest and Northeast are performing differently than much of the Sun Belt and West. And custom home building has shown relative strength… even as broader single-family construction faces pressure.
That unevenness matters, because every customer segment isn’t growing at the same rate. The opportunity now is to become more precise. More regionally aware. And to be able to focus on where demand is.
This is where segmentation stops being a marketing exercise. And becomes a growth strategy.
Digital Is Becoming a Workflow Advantage
An important signal from the big-box earnings conversation this week is the continued momentum around eCommerce and digital support. This is no longer simply about online ordering. It is about workflow capture.
The more complex the project, the more it helps to move audiences smoothly from research – to selection, ordering and installation – to follow-up support. And that journey is increasingly digital… especially for professionals who need fast access to product information, availability, training, documentation and answers from the field.
We are already seeing this pay off at scale.
Lowe’s reports that its Mylow AI assistant now handles more than a million customer inquiries a month… with conversion roughly three times that of shoppers who do not use it.
The Home Depot has rolled out an AI-powered Material List Builder inside its Pro workspace to track deliveries and simplify complex order scheduling.
The brands that are winning now are those that make the next step easier – whether that is a clearer install guide, a stronger submittal package – or a faster way to connect the Pro with the right support. Those details reduce friction… at the exact moment a buyer is deciding who to trust.
Uncertainty Isn’t A Strategy
The temptation in a mixed market is to wait, for lower rates and stronger starts. For consumers to feel better – for the next quarter – to confirm the last one.
When competitors lack confidence… the brands that create unique selling propositions gain share of voice. When audiences are confused, the brands that explain the opportunities best gain trust. And when the channel is stretched – the brands that bring solutions rather than mere products – become more valuable.
This requires discipline. Clearer positioning and smarter account targeting. Better sales enablement. More useful content. And communications that acknowledge today’s pressures without being trapped by them.
The current environment is an invitation to prove products and solutions are useful… in light of economic signals that are not.
What the Smart Brands Are Doing Now
The strongest brands are interpreting headlines. And translating them to show dealers where demand is shifting – solving labor and schedule pressure for builders – while making jobs easier for contractors. Giving specifiers the confidence to choose. And helping building owners understand the value behind the investment.
They are also sharpening messaging around the realities of this market. Providing a clearer promise. How to protect margins and simplify installation, Supporting to Pro. While moving the channel faster.
Here are the opportunities for the second half of the year:
As demand becomes more selective, manufacturers need to reduce friction throughout the buying journey.
Across our client base, we’re seeing manufacturers increasingly shift investment from broad awareness programs toward highly targeted contractor, dealer, and specification initiatives.
The brands gaining traction won’t necessarily be spending more. They’ll be investing more precisely.
One Last Thought
Proceed carefully – pay attention – keep moving.
Because demand is simply more selective. More digital and more regional. Tied to practical value rather than broad optimism.
For building product brands, that means reward for those willing to show up with clarity. With confidence. With something useful to say.
At Kleber & Associates, we’ve been helping building product brands for some four decades… turn market shifts into meaningful conversations with the audiences that matter most. If your team is evaluating where growth opportunities exist in today’s market – or how to better align sales, marketing and channel strategy around those opportunities – I’d welcome the conversation. sk@kleberandassociates.com
